Reply with information we obtain from all the tools we infer that the price movement and trading strategies for us. Indeed, I also read and heard some say that what we are doing here as if gambling is to only see that the results and conclusions made strategies exist two different kemungkinannya.lalu what coin he threw? Then doing bother analyzing said again. I try to answer in this opportunity, so .. indeed the result of our analysis will still be there two hasilnyanya, kalo kalo ride down this way. From this and just had different begitunya with just throwing coin. In probability well, by way of throwing coin and analyzes the results remain the same, namely 50-50. BUT, the level of confidence of the coin throwing and analysis that distinguishes it is. Deh this example, suppose we try to guess tomorrow at 15:00 am rain or not? without analyzing or to throw a coin we can guess with 50% probability level, but we do not have high confidence in the results. Then we try to analyze it by using the techniques used yg Meterelogi Agency, the data of temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc. collected and analyzed and it can be concluded tomorrow at 15:00 with probabilitynya does not rain 80% confidence level. Well here's the difference in the level of belief. Technically, yes it emang bener same probability is 50% but different levels of confidence. And it is common in any business, let me clear examples deh again. when we make an effort lah .. our probability of success for profit (profit) and bankruptcy (loss) as much of 50%, well why the established business or create a company that is doing the analysis first? bother doing that this survey .. and costs are also gede anyway probability of a successful business or bankrupt was still 50%? why? .. deh own mind the answer .. but roughly I say the hell .. That's the difference between running a business or business between loggerhead and intelligent people do not get mad well hehehehehehehe who feels this way ... hehehe peace bro .. Udah ah ... I hope this brief review of the protest said about this thread. We learn more aja deh .. OK, on this occasion I just wanted to share another technical sebuak to detect changes that may occur in price movements. Once again I reiterate, we never know where prices will! we can do is follow where the price will move .. that's what the tools I tried to introduce in this thread .. Following means that we are moving according to the price movement, with our efforts to try as early as possible to be able to follow the movement so that our position more secure and more easily attainable profit. tools that we use in the analysis did not attempt to guess where prices will move after this time .. we use it only as the sensor of the price movement itself. Understand well what I mean?
Well, 1 BB SD actually is a sensor that we use to detect possible changes in the reference price movements that we observe. That is why in the beginning we had agreed on definition 1 BB SD as the limits that we use to define the condition trending and FLAT (Consolidation) .. sensors like the price conditions with this 1 BB SD tells us knew what was happening at the current price, the rest of our lives watching other sensors reply .. then compare them with each other, analyze it and then making conclusions for the trading strategy we will do. Very simple is not it? Then why are many-have-been? Cuman The answer is two, first you do not have a strategy or do not want to be patient and disciplined on your strategy. Then the second you're always trying to guess where prices will move. Describe yourself deh cause is based on your experience so far. You must know the answer to the details hehehehehehe Back to SD 1 BB also often a lot of them delivering a condition often get stuck with this 1 BB SD. Here is caused generally only because we use these sensors alone to draw conclusions. We never try to look and compare it with other sensors .. such as the MA director, levels, BB reference greater or smaller and etc. I know because this also happened to me initially .. but I know this because I am lucky to get used to record all the reasons why I OP .. re-analysis of the results of the OP-OP I had I finally found out why .. Well that's why I insist on asking you all to record the reasons in detail your OP, I'll note it will be in addition to your own lessons. Purchase books and ballpoint deh ... What I should also sediain and ballpointnya book? TOO. (pake style Rhoma Irama read)
Tools that I will introduce a simple, all you often use. His name MACD, MACD kalo we see is a device standard reply is used to observe changes by comparing the prices Fast EMA (standard period of 12) and EMA Slow (Standard period 26) and then this selisihdua EMA is calculated his average of 9 periods of backward (Signal period 9) by the method of high school. This is in MT4 platform.
Well, we will use this technique to detect changes in the price movement but with a different approach and we adapt to our basic analysis in this thread. Change is the price of reference we will observe to detect changes in price, so let's say we want to observe the price changes occur daily on the Supreme Court, we will calculate the change by observing the difference in value between the current price (Close price) with the average price value daily average. His or mathematically that the price difference going to the daily average is:
The difference in price = (value Close) - (value of daily average)
By observing this price difference means that we observe the changes in the price of or compared with its daily average. If this difference increases, we know the price further away from the daily average, and when its value is positive then we know the price moves up and away from the daily average but if the negative value we know that the price away from the daily average and moving down. Like that picture about the information we get from the MACD which we will use. Well, the difference value and the average of reference we use the reply we can also calculate backward trend over time or in other words, we can see the average number backward period. In this technique I use the average equal to the period of reference that we use. So, with our style MACD here ... we'll get the information close to the difference between the reference point we have observed and the average of these differences during the same period with the period of reference we amti it.
See sample images below, if we look at the difference between the value of current prices with a daily average (SMA 24 or 24 of our middle-BB) or positive value above zero means the current price value in value greater than the average price daily . Then we also see that current prices are in the BB Trending condition daily, while the price difference is in the consolidation of the MACD conditions us but the price difference was above the daily average differences. Well that was short of information from our MACD is ... the rest I want you to learn yourself, because I'm sure with the understanding that I described earlier before you will all be easy to use this new tool. MACD basicnya we use high school, where I also show them the conditions:
Wave = Position difference in price and the average positive or negative reference
Smoothing = average conditions of the price difference with the average reference.
Later in the MACD is also a condition of his differences based nya.Saya BB would not be too detailed to explain this .. but I beg you to start using it and compare with our previous analysis. Just remember that the MACD is describing the current price difference with the average of our benchmark MA .. You can set yourself on its inputs. Discuss it with other fellow members in this thread about how to use these tools let you all be more creative and willing to think, because it's time for you all to start thinking and not in suapin aja .. hahahahahahahaha hopefully help
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